analysis

As you’ve probably noticed, your Instructor prefers slides with lots of words on them and few pictures. What you do NOT want to do is fill your slideshow with all sorts of graphics, charts, or diagrams (although one, two, or three are OK). No cartoons, please, and hand-drawn pictures are OK. This is a “Construct a Hypothetically-Assigned Intelligence Analysis” assignment where you pretend you are a PROFESSIONAL ANALYST who has been assigned to look into something by a key policymaker; e.g., whether we will go to war with so-and-so or whatever your imagination comes up with. Please note that a Cover Page and a Bibliography (if any) do NOT count as part of page count. Try to produce a final product using some technique or mix of techniques, and here are some usual expected sections:
1. Precis – this is an abstract summary of the intelligence issue presented and finessed restatement of the requirements, along with a preview of what methods will be used, and an executive summary-like teaser of what your final judgement will be.
2. Issue Decomposition – this constructs the diagram or matrix containing your hypotheses, counterfactuals, or idea sets generated.
3. Facts and Sources – this is your collection plan, and you can assume anything you need is collected or collectable thru SIGINT, COMINT, HUMINT, OSINT, etc., but any far out stuff might need a Gap Analysis. Show you know something about source reliability.
4. Analytical Product – These are the matrix, charts, graphs, or other visualizations (of your choice) relevant to your method and demonstrating you know how to do analysis.
5. Denial and Deception – this is your Counterintelligence or Deception plan, or if you are suggesting something tactical and operational, your expectations of what can go wrong.
6. Conclusions and Recommendations – This is your final judgement (an estimation or prediction). It’s safe to write almost anything here if you’ve done the previous sections well. Don’t be overly proud of yourself. Present an alternative analytic approach. Avoid policymaking. Consider a FAQ page
The key thing I’ll be looking for in your PowerPoint Presentation (be sure to review the detailed instructions in the syllabus) is the ANALYTICAL PRODUCT, which is usually called a MODEL, but you probably know them as charts, graphs, diagrams, or other visualizations. There are many ways to do them, and rarely is there one so great that you can just copy and paste someone else’s into your slide show (these, like someone’s theory, are usually modified, adjusted, or paraphrased anyway). What I would really like to see you do (besides getting beyond the “how fascinating is the course” phase) is come up with a MODEL OF YOUR OWN. This is stated in the syllabus and rubrics as deserving the highest points for creative excellence that is original or inventive, neatness aside. I know there are no good graphics drawing software out there and the learning curve is high, so I allow HAND-DRAWN stuff. The artwork in your Slide Show doesn’t impress me. Yes, you can even include a picture or scan of your model that you drew on the back of a table napkin. I promise I won’t hold it against you. Just be creative. Put some thought into it. Pretend you’re an expert on what you’re talking about. Make up some phony numbers if you have to (calling for better estimates thru a plan of some sort). I’m attaching some sample models that by no means exhaust the possibilities.

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